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Optimal stack probabilities are calculated using each team’s six best projected hitters.
Team stacks with the most leverage: Padres, Rockies
The new-look San Diego Padres appear to be in the most appealing leverage scenario on tonight’s roster as they take on Tony Gonsolin and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Gonsolin’s success was a welcome surprise for the Dodgers in a year when their rotation is depleted. He performed well with a 2.41 ERA, and while there is an increase in his expected ERA, the Dodgers will happily take his record 12 wins and look forward to continued success. July wasn’t great for him as his ERA dropped from 1.54 to 2.41, but during that month he had a stellar outing against the Padres where he allowed just one run. in seven innings while totaling eight strikeouts.
San Diego’s offense is the talk of baseball right now with the acquisition of Juan Soto, so it’s fitting that he’s thrown right into the fire in a rivalry game against the team they’re chasing. in the ranking. The Padres were strong after the All-Star break. Over the past two weeks, they have placed in the top seven in ISO, wOBA and wRC+. Add Soto to an already streaked offense and you’re cooking with gas. Gonsolin is no pushover, but he hasn’t been elite in his last few starts, while that offense has been deadly lately. Taking a hit on this fairly expensive stack that should only see minimal ownership is a high potential play if you have the financial flexibility.
The Colorado Rockies join the Padres near the top of the leverage board as they get the boost from Coors Field against Madison Bumgarner and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Bumgarner has had a pretty sloppy season that could get worse as his expected actual ERA drops from 3.83 to 5.00, making him one of six qualified pitchers in baseball with an xERA of at least 5.00. . His batting production is in the gutter and his steps are up. In an appearance against the Rockies this year, not at Coors Field, Bumgarner actually performed well, allowing two earned runs in seven innings.
The Rockies don’t offer much on offense when they’re not in Colorado, but thankfully they’re back in their clubhouse tonight. The Coors boost helps them a lot as they would be an unidentified offense without it, but tonight we still see low ownership with this stack. Bumgarner hasn’t been good at all, so the Rockies will have chances to do some damage to him. Taking this reasonably priced stack with minimal ownership can become a high potential play due to the opponent.
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