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Pitchers seeing the most leverage: Nestor Cortes, Zac Gallen
Nestor Cortes gets the ball for the New York Yankees as they head to Fenway Park, giving us a great weekend of baseball rivalry. Cortes arrives as the most expensive arm in DraftKings for tonight’s slate, opening up a leverage opportunity with him given his price tag and the Red Sox’ formidable opponent.
The southpaw is having a solid season at the top of the Yankees rotation with a 2.59 xERA, sub-1.00 WHIP and strong strikeout production at 27.5%. The Red Sox have been a reasonably productive offense lately, ranking in the top 12 in wOBA and wRC+ with the third most hits over the past two weeks. Cortes has also struggled with power lately as he’s given up five homers in his last three starts, which helps the Red Sox in this game despite their below-average power metrics.
However, Cortes has been too dependable for the Yankees this season not to roll with him tonight when we expect him to be held less than 3% on DraftKings. Coughing up the spare change for one of baseball’s best pitchers this season is worth a shot, because the benefits are clear.
Zac Gallen joins Cortes atop the leverage board as his Arizona Diamondbacks take on the Colorado Rockies. It would make more sense why we see leverage on Gallen if he goes to Coors Field tonight, but he has to face the Rockies at his home ballpark, who stink on the road, finishing 25th in wOBA, 27th in wRC+, and dead last in ISO among all teams on the road.
This season will be the third time Gallen will face the Rockies, once on the road and once at home. When Coors started, Gallen was pretty average but not terrible as he allowed three earned runs in six innings. Playing at home, which we should consider more tonight, Gallen had his best start to the season, where he pitched seven scoreless innings to go with seven strikeouts.
Gallen is priced quite affordably at $8,300 and is looking to see single-digit ownership in a leveraged opportunity. The leverage will look ridiculous if he can come close to his previous game against the Rockies in Arizona. He’ll give you a high-level, high-ceiling opportunity regardless, as it won’t cost you much to field him, and with recent success on his side, it could end up being a home run.
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